黄金方面：
上周公布的美国11月CPI数据显示与预期一致，对比前值略有上升；PPI数据的年率和月率均录得对比预期值上升，表明通胀略有反弹。
虽然投资者普遍预计美联储在本周的议息会议上会降息，且降息25个基点的概率高达94.7%。但通胀的反弹使得投资者对2025年的降息路径充满疑虑，在11月初美联储就曾释放出2025年放缓降息步伐的信号，导致黄金涨势受阻，陷入宽幅震荡。
百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，美联储放缓降息可能推动美元进一步走强，从而打压金价。
技术面：黄金日线自2789美元的最高点以来宽幅震荡，上周上冲至前高一线再次折戟。短线来看，结构上并未止跌，继续下探的概率更大，上方关注2662美元的阻力。
原油方面：
特朗普在最近的采访中被问及美国与伊朗爆发战争的问题时，他表示“任何事情都可能会发生，这是非常不稳定的局势。”在特朗普的上一个任期，美国与伊朗的局势非常紧张，2018年5月退出伊核协议，并暗杀了伊朗将领苏莱曼尼，此次特朗普上任后可能对伊朗继续施压，中东局势或将变得更加严峻。
欧盟对俄罗斯实施了第15轮制裁，主要针对支持俄罗斯原油出口的油轮船队，美国也会施行同样的限制措施，原油供应将进一步趋紧。
百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，俄乌战争仍在继续，中东战场有扩大的可能，对油价构成强有力的支撑。
技术面：原油上周持续反弹，70美元的关口已经攻下，若能继续向上突破72.50美元，则将打破长期以来的震荡下行，多头可期。日内关注70.80美元的多空分界线。
重要声明：上述内容及观点由第三方合作平台智昇提供，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。
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